摘要 近年来，受自然环境和人类活动的影响，我国泥石流、洪水等由水引发的重特大自然灾害不断增多，对人类生命财产造成的损失也日趋严重。公路交通系统在灾后应急救援和重要活动保障中担负着十分重要的作用，抢险救灾的成效与公路交通的通畅、运输效率有直接关系。但是在我国目前的应急预案体系中，公路交通应急预案普遍以公路交通相关部门为主体，关注路上突发事件的应急处置，一方面缺乏对公路交通应急处置与灾后应急活动的统筹考虑，另一方面缺少形成应急处置方案的理论方法。针对此，本文将灾后应急活动与灾害情景相结合，提出了基于情景-任务-能力的应急处置方案编制方法。论文首先对水毁灾害和公路交通应急管理进行了释义，通过对水毁灾害和应急处置阶段的界定解释了本文的研究对象，从管理学基本理论入手，分析了应急处置管理要素，明确了公路交通应急处置这一管理活动。然后对国内外公路交通应急管理体系进行了对比，总结了我国公路交通应急存在的问题。随后借鉴美国应急管理体系构建的经验，提出了针对我国公路交通应急管理体系建设的政策建议。接下来论文主要对公路交通应急处置方案的编制技术进行了研究：从管理的层次入手分析了应急处置方案的基本框架结构与内容，在此基础上建立了“纵向到底、横向到边”的公路交通应急处置方案体系；在分析现有应急预案编制方法的基础上，针对我国公路交通应急预案编制工作缺乏理论方法的现状，提出了基于情景-任务-能力的编制方法，通过情景构建及任务分析对编制方法进行了实现；随后，以云南省为例，初步构建了云南省公路交通应急处置方案体系，对研究结论进行了初步的应用。最后，总结了本文的研究成果，并且指出存在的不足，对今后的研究方向进行了展望。 关键词：公路交通，应急处置方案，编制方法，情景，任务。 ABSTRACT In Recent years, the loss of human lives and property are increasing heavily while major natural disasters caused by water like mudslides and flooding continue to increase. Road transportation system plays a very important role in the disaster emergency rescue activities. However, in nation’s current emergency plan system, emergency plans for road transportation system generally focus on road and related departments, paying most attention on emergencies’ first-aid disposal. On one hand, it is lack of overall consideration of post emergency actives, on the other hand, it is lack of a theoretical method to emergency planning. To solve this problem, this thesis trying to combine post disaster emergency activities and disaster scenarios, and provided the planning method based on scenario-task-capability. Firstly, this paper interpreted flood disaster and road transportation emergency management, and explained what the main study subject is. Starting with basic management theory, this paper analyzed emergency management elements, outlined the management activity of road transportation emergency. Secondly, this paper made comparisons across domestic and international road transportation system emergency management systems, summarized the problems of our emergency system. Then, delighted by experiences of US emergency management system, this paper provided governance advices on how to construct our nation’s road transportation emergency management system. Also, this paper studied the planning method on road traffic transportation emergency management. Starting from the level of management, this paper analyzed the framework and content of emergency disposal plan. At last, based on the former study, this paper established a comprehensive road transportation emergency plan hierarchy. By analyzing the current emergency planning method, this paper proposed a scenario-task-capability emergency planning method, through scenario assumption and task analysis, this paper provided a realization model and used it in Yunnan Province. At the end, this paper summarizes the research results, points out the shortcomings of the research, and prospects the future research directions. Key Words: Road transportation system, emergency plan, planning method, scenario, task. |
硕士论文