摘要 冰雪天气对山区高速公路的正常运营影响很大，冰雪条件下的高速公路管理已经成为一大难题。山区高速公路具有线形条件差、路况复杂的特点，加之冰雪状况下复杂的道路运行环境，增加了车辆运行的风险。 论文针对冰雪天气下山区高速公路运营安全这一目标，首先分析了山区高速公路冰雪天气下运行环境复杂性，包括山区高速公路自身复杂的线形条件和冰雪状况对道路运行环境的影响。然后采用不同的模型计算得到了冰雪天气下山区高速公路安全运行车速及相对应的限速管理措施，并且对不同模型的结论进行了比较分析，为防止车辆追尾提供了理论依据。同时针对冰雪天气下车辆存在侧翻侧滑的风险，分析比较了平曲线上车辆不发生侧翻及侧滑的安全车速标准，发现冰雪天气下车辆在弯道处侧滑要先于侧翻发生，因此在控制车辆超载的情况下以不发生侧滑的车速为安全车速的参考标准。 通过分析山区高速公路冰雪天气下运行环境复杂性和安全运行车速，归纳提出了山区高速公路冰雪天气下运营风险指标主要包括5部分：①动态交通流运行风险指标；②线形指标；③冰雪天气道路运行环境指标；④交通安全设施指标；⑤基于事故分析的评价指标。通过对这5部分指标的计算，得到了不同评价标准等级的评价分级指标，采用模糊综合评判法，对道路冰雪状况下的运营风险进行评价，从而为限速措施、安全工程设施的设置乃至道路运行管理提供有效的建议。 基于山区高速公路冰雪天气下运营风险评价结果，给出实时预警信息对策库，对策库分为针对交通流的实时预警对策信息和针对道路运行环境状况的实时预警对策信息，可根据风险评价结果动态选择。 最后，关于进一步工作的方向进行了简要的讨论。 然后，通过仿真试验获得了作为自变量的三个交通参数的相关数据和代表行车风险的数据，以这些数据为基础，利用多元回归分析建立不同隧道环境下风险指标和三个交通参数之间的多元线性回归模型。 最后，简要讨论了模型的风险评价标准并提出了隧道交通流实时行车风险的评价流程。 关键词：山区高速公路，冰雪天气，安全车速，运行风险，模糊综合评判。 ABSTRACT It has a great impact on the safe operation of the mountainous highway in the snow and ice weather, the management of highway has become a major problem under these conditions. Mountainous highway has a poor linear and road condition; especially the snow and ice weather increases operational risks. The paper is aiming for the safe operation of the mountainous highway in the snow and ice weather. It first analyses the operating environment, including the linear, weather and traffic flow condition. Then by using the different models, the safe operating speed and management measures are got, rear-end accidents can be prevented by this way. To avoid the sideslip and rollover accidents on horizontal curve, the safe speed are calculated, by comparison, anti-sidesliping speed is chosen for the safe speed on horizontal curve. By analyzing the operating environment and safe speed, the paper summarizes five operational risk indicators, including traffic flow, linear, road conditions, facilities and indicators of the accident. By fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, we can get the operational risks in the snow and ice weather in mountainous highway. The result has a great help for the speed limit, the setting of safety facilities and road management. The paper comes up with real-time warning repositories on the basis of operational risks. The repositories include traffic flow real-time warning and road conditions real-time warning, and can be chosen according to operational risks. The operation conition of mountainous highway in the snow and ice weather is improved by this way. In the finality, the problems requiring further studies are discussed. Key Words: mountainous highway, snow and ice weather, safe speed, operational risks, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
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硕士论文