摘要 随着国民经济的快速发展和交通需求的迅速增长，我国高速公路所面临的交通安全问题也日趋严重。交通事件造成道路拥堵，降低道路运行的效率，增加了道路发生二次事故的安全隐患，给社会带来巨大的经济损失。为提高公路公路事件状态下的安全性和效率性，本为对交通事件下的高速公路运行状态开展了一些研究。 论文第二章阐述了高速公路交通事件的定义，分析了交通事件的时空分布特性及其对交通流的影响。提出了基于VISSIM的事件仿真方法：路径设置法和公交停靠法，并给出了交通事件下的高速公路仿真实验方案。 第三章建立了事件下的影响范围预测模型。介绍了云模型的相关理论，确定了事件下影响时空范围的预测变量，运用ANFIS工具提取了事件影响时空范围的推理规则，建立了基于云推理的事件时空影响范围预测模型，并检验了预测模型的有效性。 第四章提出了当量交通冲突数的换算方法。阐述了交通冲突的概念和交通冲突仿真SSAM软件的原理。通过交通冲突严重程度分析，确定了表示交通冲突严重程度的指标。建立了基于多指标综合评价的交通冲突严重程度指数，并提出了基于冲突严重程度水平划分和模糊评价的当量交通冲突数换算方法。利用仿真实验数据建立了事件下的当量交通冲突数预测模型并检验了预测模型的有效性。 第五章探讨了事件下的交通控制措施优化方法。分析了事件下的常用交通控制措施，构建了基于事件影响范围和当量交通冲突数的交通措施效果评价指标，并给出了事件下的交通控制措施优化实例。 最后，论文对研究成果进行了总结，指出了不足之处，对今后的研究方向进行了展望。 关键词：高速公路，交通事件，交通仿真，事件影响范围，当量交通冲突。 ABSTRACT Along with the fast development of national economy and rapid growth of traffic demand, the freeway traffic safety problems have become more and more serious. Traffic incidents cause traffic congestion and reduce the running efficiency of freeway, what is more, traffic incidents result in a secondary accident and bring about great financial losses. In order to improve the safety and efficiency of freeway, the running state of highway under traffic incident condition is researched in this thesis. Chapter II expounds the definition of freeway traffic incident, analyzes the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of traffic incident and its influence on traffic flow. Then, based on VISSIM, path-set method and bus-stop method are proposed to simulate the traffic incident of freeway. Finally, gives experimental scheme of freeway under traffic incident condition. Chapter III establishes the prediction model of influence range of traffic incident. First, introduces correlation theory of cloud model, then determines prediction variables and extracts inference rule of by ANFIS. Based on the above work, establishes the prediction model finally and tests the model validity. Chapter IV presents the equivalent conversion of traffic conflict. First, expounds the definition of traffic conflict and the operating principle of SSAM software. Then, through the analysis of traffic conflict severity, the indexes which can describe the conflict severity were set. Based on multi-index synthetic evaluation and fuzzy evaluation, index of traffic conflict severity and equivalent conversion of traffic conflict are put forward. Finally, establishes the prediction model of equivalent number of traffic conflict and tests the model validity. Chapter V discusses the optimization method of traffic control measures under traffic incident condition. First, analyzes the frequently-used traffic control measures and presents a evaluation index based on the above prediction models, then gives a example of the optimization of traffic control measures under traffic incident condition. Finally, the thesis summarizes the research results, and points out the shortcomings, then predicts the future research direction. Key Words:freeway，traffic incident，traffic simulation，influence range of traffic incident，equivalent traffic conflict. |
硕士论文