摘要 随着我国高速公路隧道数量的增多和规模的增大，以及近年来国内外重特大隧道事故频发，高速公路隧道运营安全问题需要特别重视。由于隧道环境的独特性，隧道内发生事故往往会引起灾难性的后果，因此，有必要研究高速公路隧道交通流的运营安全问题。论文以隧道交通流实时行车风险评价为目标，研究隧道环境下交通流的风险评价方法，建立高速公路隧道交通流实时行车风险评价模型。 在高速公路隧道行车环境和交通流特点方面，本文研究了隧道环境对行车带来的影响，并且通过实地调查获取的隧道交通流数据分析了隧道交通流特征，作为隧道交通流行车风险分析和评价的研究基础。 在高速公路隧道交通流实时风险评价模型研究方面，主要包括以下几个方面的内容： 首先，提出了交通流行车风险包括车流受扰风险和车流平均风险。以跟驰模型为依据，引入了表征交通流行车风险的三个宏观交通指标，分析并确定了以平均风险水平作为风险的衡量标准。 然后，通过仿真试验获得了作为自变量的三个交通参数的相关数据和代表行车风险的数据，以这些数据为基础，利用多元回归分析建立不同隧道环境下风险指标和三个交通参数之间的多元线性回归模型。 最后，简要讨论了模型的风险评价标准并提出了隧道交通流实时行车风险的评价流程。 关键词：高速公路隧道，交通流，行车风险，多元线性回归。 ABSTRACT With the increase in the number and the size of freeway tunnels, as well as the frequent serious tunnel accidents at home and abroad in recent years, freeway tunnel operation safety issues should be attached importance to. Due to the unique environment of the tunnel, the tunnel accidents often lead to disastrous consequences, it is therefore necessary to study the operation safety of the freeway tunnel traffic flow. Regarded real-time driving risk assessment of the traffic flow in tunnels as basic object, the risk assessment method of the traffic flow in tunnels has been studied, and the real-time driving risk assessment model of the traffic flow in freeway tunnels has been established. At research on driving environment and the characteristics of the traffic flow in freeway tunnels, the impact of the tunnel environment on the driving has been studied, and the characteristics of the traffic flow has been analyzed using data obtained through field surveys on the traffic flow in freeway tunnels, all of these are the basic of the driving risk assessment of the traffic flow in tunnels. At research on the real-time driving risk assessment model of the traffic flow in freeway tunnels, the main content is as follows: Firstly, the conception that driving risk consists of disruptive risk and average risk is put forward. And three macroscopical traffic flow parameters are used to be the representation of the traffic flow driving risk. Average risk level is used as a criterion to evaluate the driving risk. Secondly, the data interrelated with the three macroscopical traffic flow parameters and which is as a token of average risk level are obtained through traffic simulation. A multiple linear regression model between average risk level in different environment of the tunnel and the three macroscopical traffic flow parameters is established. Finally, the Risk evaluation criterion of the model is simply discussed, and the evaluation process of the traffic flow driving risk in tunnels is put forward. Key Words: freeway tunnels, traffic flow, driving risk, multiple linear regression. |
硕士论文