摘要 随着我国公路建设里程的快速增长，双车道公路作为我国公路运输系统的重要组成部分，全国各省市双车道公路建设数量和里程得到快速发展。双车道公路一般作为国家和省内的干线公路或集散公路。由于受公路设计标准、地形地貌和资金的限制，相对于高等级公路，双车道公路线形复杂、横向干扰多、路侧环境恶劣、交通安全设施缺乏，导致产生复杂的运行环境，更易发生交通事故，运行安全状况不容忽视。因此，近年来我国双车道公路交通系统运行风险研究开始受到重视。 本文依托交通运输部《双车道公路安全性评价指南》编制课题、交通运输部《公路项目安全性评价规范》编制课题、交通运输部西部交通建设科技项目《湘西旅游公路改造及安全保障技术研究》和山西省交通厅科技项目《山西省山区双车道公路交通安全设计与事故预防对策研究》，针对双车道公路交通系统运行风险进行研究，分析了构成双车道公路交通系统的物理结构和系统运行环境，提出了双车道公路交通系统运行结构描述模型；依据运行结构属性特点，分别双车道公路线形、路侧环境、交通工程设施运行风险评价进行了详细研究，建立了运行结构风险评估基础模型；再结合基本路段交通行为与平交口交通行为的类型及其风险特性，建立了交通行为风险评估核心模型；再利用空间向量理论、基于星座图的数据可视化分析，提出了综合评估模型；最后基于系统运行风险分析的特点，给出相应的风险控制措施。结合张家界连接线二级公路进行工程应用算例说明。 首先，界定了双车道公路交通系统的研究对象和研究范围，明确了双车道公路运行结构物理组成，提出基于结构物类型和基于设计要素的两类运行结构分类方法，根据两类方法的关联性分析给出系统中各结构单元的划分方法，进而对结构单元进行属性分析与描述，并建立运行结构属性集，从系统运行结构属性集中提取与运行风险显著相关的影响因素，从线形风险性、路面风险性、路侧风险性、交通工程设施风险性分别构建基本路段和平面交叉口路段的运行结构风险评估指标体系，提出运行结构基础单元和组合单元风险度计算方法。 其次，结合驾驶员动视觉特性提出了视觉线形信息概念和相应的计算方法，利用相邻路段特征断面视觉线形信息变化率表达线形风险性，构建了线形风险评估基础模型。利用模糊评判的方法提出路侧环境风险特征指数的计算，利用贝叶斯网络拓扑方法提出车辆侵入路侧概率计算方法，提出路侧风险综合评价指标，构建了路侧环境风险评估基础模型。通过构建护栏设施、交通标志、交通标线、视线诱导设施和防撞设施五个对象层和30项指标体系，基于层次分析法和模糊综合评判的数学方法构建了交通工程设施综合效用模型。从而从线形风险、路侧环境风险和交通工程设施安全效用三方面构建了双车道公路交通系统运行结构风险评估基础模型。 再次，针对基本路段自由行驶、跟驰行为和超车行为三类机动车交通行为，分析了行车安全约束条件，提出了行车安全控制标准和风险评价指标，然后利用3层神经网络模型建立了双车道公路运行环境的7个主要指标与机动车交通行为的关系模型，以模糊评判方法为基础建立了机动车交通行为行为风险性评价指标的隶属函数，基于评价结果对三类机动车交通行为风险性等级进行了划分。根据平面交叉口功能区域，结合双车道公路平面交叉口机动车与机动车冲突类型，划分了三大类八个风险区域，并提出风险区域冲突点相应计算方法，从交通冲突风险角度，综合影响机动车与机动车交通冲突发生可能性和严重性的各类指标提出冲突风险指数，从而构建交叉冲突、分流冲突和合流冲突风险计算模型。 再次，利用综合评价向量表达双车道公路交通系统综合运行风险性的方法，并利用星座图进行风险可视化表达和聚类分析，能够有效的表达单个路段、相邻路段、多个路段以及路网的综合运行风险性，且该方法可拓展于道路交通系统运行风险性研究各个领域，如交通行为风险性表达，具有重要学术意义。 最后，将双车道公路交通系统运行风险分析理论工程应用于安全设计与安全评价、安全养护管理与规划、交通管理与控制。采用博弈理论和多目标决策优化研究决策模型，分别建立双车道公路路段级和项目级运行风险控制决策模型，用于制定最佳的风险控制方案。 关键词：双车道公路交通系统；运行结构；交通行为；运行风险；风险评估；风险控制对策库 ABSTRACT With the rapid growth of domestic highway construction mileage, two-lane highway, as an important part of highway transportation system, has developed rapidly in its numbers and mileage. Generally speaking, two-lane highway is applied in a national and provincial arterial highway or collector highway. Due to restrictions of highway design standards, topography and geomorphology, and funding, two-lane highway presents the characteristics of complex alignment, frequent transverse interference, harsh roadside environment and lack of traffic safety facilities compared with high-grade highway, which lead to complex operating environment and more traffic accidents. Considering all the situations mentioned above, the operation risk of two-lane highway traffic system began to be taken seriously in recent years. This dissertation is based on the research of Safety Audit Guidelines of Two-lane Highway and Specification for Safety Audit of Highway (Specification preparation Project supported by Ministry of Transport.of the People’ Republic of China), and Tourist Highway Reconstruction and Safety Assurance Technology In Xiangxi Area (the Western Traffic Science and Technology Project supported by Ministry of Transport.of the People’ Republic of China), and Research on traffic safety design and accident prevent strategy in Two-lane roads in Mountainous Area of ShanXi Province（the Traffic Science and Technology Project supported by Department of Transportation of Shanxi Province）.According to research on operation risk of the two-lane highway traffic system, the operation physical structure and operation environment of two-lane highway traffic system were analyzed. At meanwhile, operation structure description model of which was also proposed. Based on the characteristics of the operation structural properties, research on the operation risk evaluation of two-lane highway alignment, roadside environment, traffic engineering facilities was analyzed thoroughly. In accordance with the analysis of which, the basic model of operation structural risk evaluation was established. Combining with types and risk characteristics of traffic behavior in the basic section and intersection, the core model for traffic behavior risk evaluation was established. Using space vector theory, based on the data visualization analysis of constellation graphical method, a comprehensive evaluation model was proposed. At last, based on the system features of operation risk analysis, application of risk analysis theory was given. Combining with the project of Zhangjiajie second-class highway, engineering application examples were explained. Firstly, the research object and scope of the two-lane highway traffic system were defined. The physical composition of two-lane highway operation structure was also cleared. Besides, based on the types of structure and design elements, operation structure classification was proposed. According to association of which, the division method of operation structural unit was given, and then attribute analysis and description of structural unit was also finished. At last, the attribute set of operation structure was established, from which, the factors significantly associated with operation risk was extracted. From the risk analysis of alignment, pavement, roadside environment and traffic engineering facilities, risk evaluation index system of operation structure in the basic section and intersection were constructed respectively. risk calculation method of operation structure for the base and combining unit was proposed. Secondly, combining with the driver dynamic visual features, the concept of visual alignment information and its corresponding calculation method were put forwards. The rate of the visual alignment information change for adjacent section was used to express alignment risk and to build a basic model of alignment risk evaluation. Fuzzy method was used to conclude the calculation method of roadside environmental risk characteristics index. Bayesian network topology method was applied to obtain the calculation method of vehicle invading roadside probability, to propose comprehensive evaluation index of roadside risk and to construct a base model of roadside environmental risk evaluation. By building five objects layer as guardrail facilities, traffic signs, traffic marking, sight induced facilities and collision avoidance facilities and 30 indicators, based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation mathematical methods, safety utility model for traffic engineering facilities was constructed. Furthermore, the basic model of operation structural risk evaluation for two-lane highway traffic system was built from three aspects as alignment risk, roadside environmental risk and safety utility of traffic engineering facilities. Thirdly, according to three types of vehicle traffic behavior as free driving behavior, following behavior and passing behavior, traffic safety constraints was analyzes. At meanwhile, traffic safety control standards and risk evaluation index were proposed. Then, the relation model between the seven major indicators of the operation environment on two-lane highway and vehicle behaviors characteristics was established by three-layer neural network model. The membership function about the discrimination indexes of risk state were established based on fuzzy evaluation method and the risk level of the three types of vehicle behaviors were divided. According to intersection functional area, combining with conflict types of vehicles in two-lane highway intersection, three categories and eight risk areas were divided. At the same time, corresponding calculation method of the risk regional conflict points was proposed. From the point of traffic conflict risk, combining all types of indicators, which affect the likelihood and severity of traffic conflicts between vehicles, conflict risk index was proposed. Furthermore, risk calculation model for cross conflict, shunt conflict and confluence conflict was built. Fourthly, comprehensive evaluation vector was used to express method of integrated operation risk for two-lane highway traffic system. constellation graphical method was applied to conduct risk visualization and clustering analysis, which is effective to express integrated operation risk of individual sections, adjacent sections, multiple sections and highway network. At meanwhile, this method can be extended to all fields of operation risk research for highway traffic system, such as expression of traffic behavior risk, which has important academic significance. Finally, the operation risk analysis theory for two-lane highway traffice system is applied to safety design and safety evaluation, safety maintenance management and planning, traffic management and control.Besides, game theory and optimization of multi-objective decision model were applied respectively to establish two-lane highway section-grade and project-level operational risk control decision-making model ,which were used to develop the best risk control program. Key words: two-lane highway traffic system; operation structure; traffic behavior; operation risk; risk evaluation; risk control measures library |
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