摘要 随着我国高速公路总里程的快速增长，高速公路网络化也在快速形成。四通八达的高速公路网在带来便捷、高效服务的同时，也因高速交通流易受恶劣气象条件和交通事故等灾变事件的扰动而造成路网大面积拥堵，致使安全状况恶化，甚至引发次生交通事故。因此，如何全面分析、评价高速公路网在灾变事件下的运营风险，并科学合理地进行交通组织与管理，已成为高速公路网运营管理部门面临的重大问题。本文在国家863计划课题和国家科技支撑计划重大项目课题的支持下，针对上述问题展开了研究。 第2章总体上对灾变事件下高速公路网交通组织管理的目标及决策依据展开研究。通过对比分析常态条件下与灾变事件下交通组织管理目标的差异，提出灾变事件下高速公路网交通组织管理的三个基本目标，即安全、畅通及效率，并阐述了各自的内涵。为了将三个基本目标落实到具体的交通组织管理，将它们细化为五个具体的决策依据，即灾变事件的类型与等级、系统可靠度、路段饱和度、路网饱和度及行程时间。论文重点对交通组织管理措施的决策依据及集成控制优化问题展开研究。 第3章主要对系统可靠度问题展开研究。采用系统工程理论对现有的道路交通系统模型进行了重建，分析了“人——车——路——环境——管理”道路交通系统中五要素之间的相互关系及其对道路交通系统安全的影响机理，并将道路交通系统划分为四种类型并逐个进行了定义。以可靠性工程理论和贝叶斯理论为基础，对道路交通系统可靠性的概念进行了定义，建立了四类道路交通系统的可靠性计算模型。针对路网交通系统可靠度实际计算中存在的困难及事件因果诊断的需要，引入了贝叶斯网络理论，建立了耦合贝叶斯网络的道路交通系统可靠性计算模型。 第4章主要对涉及路段饱和度计算的灾变事件下路网运营态势演化问题展开研究。在对灾变事件下路网用户路径选择行为分析的基础上，以基于用户最优的交通分配模型及其解法为基础，提出了灾变事件下路网交通流分布预测的基本思想及方法，由此推算路段饱和度及路网拥堵范围的发展演化。针对高速公路网范围大、灾变事件影响强度不同的实际，将灾变事件对路网的影响区域划分为四个范围，并提出相应的确定方法。 第5章主要对涉及路网饱和度计算的路网最大通行能力问题展开研究。借鉴图论的瓶颈理论，对路网瓶颈概念进行了定义，根据路网最大通行能力因事件影响而动态变化的特征，将路网瓶颈概念划分为静态路网瓶颈和动态路网瓶颈，并采用标号法和超级起讫点法分别作为单OD对和多OD对交通流的路网瓶颈分析方法。静态路网瓶颈的概念适用于静态设施通行能力的计算分析，而动态路网瓶颈的概念则适用于灾变事件下实际路网的动态运营管理。以京港澳高速河南省安新段路网为例，从入网限流管理、路网拥堵节点分析和路网交通分配三方面探讨了路网瓶颈概念在高速公路网运营管理中的应用。为了解决路网瓶颈法分析路网拥堵节点时遗漏拥堵节点的问题，进一步提出了瓶颈链通道的概念。瓶颈链通道是灾变事件下高速公路网交通分流诱导的关键通道，对路网运行态势发展有重要影响。实例分析表明，路网瓶颈和瓶颈链通道概念在高速公路网运营管理中有重要的应用价值。 第6章主要对交通组织管理中的路网最优流量分配问题展开研究。针对现有的路网动态交通分配模型存在的问题，如仅适用于常态运营条件下的城市路网、仅以路网总体行程时间最小或总体行驶费用最低为目标、不考虑路网运营风险等，提出了以“可接受风险水平下总疏散时间最小”为目标的路网最优交通分配模型。由于灾变事件下高速公路网的动态交通分配一般是通过分解为滚动时段的静态交通分配来实现，因此，通过在每个管理时段实施基于系统最优的静态交通分配来实现整个事件处理过程的基于系统最优的动态交通分配。提出逐步叠加对偶法和同步叠加对偶法两种方法作为路网最优交通分配模型的求解方法，可供实际选用。基于可接受风险水平下总疏散时间最小的交通分配模型及其解法解决了灾变事件下路网的最佳流量分配问题，在路网运营风险控制要求与通行效率最大化需要两者之间作出了合理的平衡。算例对比表明，本文的交通分配方法比现有的K条最短路径分配方法能提高通行效率约10%。 第7章主要对灾变事件下路网交通组织管理措施的集成优化问题展开研究。综合已有的研究成果，介绍了灾变事件下高速公路网交通组织管理的各种措施，并梳理了它们与五个决策依据之间的逻辑关系。基于已有的研究成果，制定了各种交通组织管理措施的决策准则。根据高速公路网内长大桥梁、长大隧道、枢纽立交、基本路段等不同设施的运营特征，分别制定了集成优化各种交通组织管理措施的管理对策库。针对灾变事件下高速公路网交通组织管理涉及空间范围大的特点，提出综合采用可变信息标志VMS、路侧广播、电台广播、手机短信平台、车载终端、互联网、声讯电话及电视等各种信息发布渠道进行交通分流诱导，提出了各自的信息发布策略与方法。 第8章主要以京港澳高速公路河南段路网为依托对研究成果进行了应用探讨。按宏观交通组织管理、中观交通组织管理及微观交通组织管理三级模式构建了路网的拓扑结构，并编制了高速公路网灾变事件管理系统的逻辑流程，可供开发相应的管理系统使用。 最后的第9章对全文的研究成果进行了归纳总结，得出了论文的主要结论及创新点，并提出进一步研究的展望。 关键词：高速公路网；交通组织管理；灾变事件；道路交通系统；可靠性；交通分配；贝叶斯网络；系统工程 ABSTRACT With the soaring of the mileage of expressway in China, expressway networks are rapidly emerging. Expressway networks extending in all directions, as all we know, have brought in convenient and efficient traffic services. However, there is a vital weakness in expressway network that extensive congestion and deteriorating safety situations can easily come up because of the vulnerability of high-speed traffic flow due to traffic accidents, disastrous weather, and other catastrophic events, which even trigger re-accidents. Thus, it has been a challenge for expressway network management departments to analyze and assess the operational risks under the circumstance of adverse weather and other emergency events, and to keep traffic flow fluently. With support from project of China National Programs for High Technology Research and Development and Major Project in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program, this dissertation will do some research on the problems mentioned above. Thus the propose of this dissertation is to do some research on the influences of disastrous weather and other emergencies on the safe operation of expressway network and the technical problems involved, so as to reduce its operational risks and enhance efficiency, which will contribute to social economic development a lot. The main content of the dissertation is as follows: In chapter one, this dissertation states the background of the research, the general situations of domestic and aboard studies on the topic, the main content of the research that the author are about to do and the research methodologies. In chapter two, objectives for traffic organization and management of expressway networks, and five indicators for decision making for the measures are suggested. The five indicators are: type and grade of determental events, safety reliability, saturation degree of road section, saturation degree of expressway network, and link travel time. In the following chapters, methods to compute these indices are in-depth investigated. In chapter three, method to calculate safety reliability is presented. System engineering is applied to reshape the existing road traffic system model and four kinds of road traffic systems are classified. Inter-relationship between elements of ‘people-vehicle-road-environment-management’ in road traffic system and their influencing mechanisms on the system safety are analyzed. Based on Reliability Engineering Theory and Bayesian Theory, the reliability of road traffic system is defined and reliability models of the four kind road traffic systems are established. To deal with difficulties in reliability calculation for road traffic systems and to meet the need of causal inference in expressway network management, Bayesian network, short for BN, is introduced to the above road traffic system reliability models. In chapter four, evolution tendency of expressway network congested under the adverse weather or other emergencies is explored. Based on analysis of the behavior that drivers choose their routes when involved in emergency event in expressway network, the user equilibrium traffic assignment models are adopted to predict the congestion evolution tendency. In need of traffic organization and management of expressway network under detrimental events, expressway network is divided into four management contexts according to seriousness of the influence of detrimental events. Methods to determine the contexts are presented correspondingly. In chapter five, the concept of road network bottleneck is defined and its analysis method is presented. Since the capacity of road network is changing under the conditions of adverse weather and other emergent events, road network bottleneck can be divided into static and dynamic bottlenecks. The static bottleneck concept is applicable for calculation of the capacity of physical infrastructure, while the dynamic one is for the dynamic operations management of expressway network. Based on Graph Theory in Operations Research, the way to figure out the road network bottlenecks is presented. In chapter six, this paper proposes a modified dynamic traffic assignment model for expressway network, which aims to achieve minimum total travel time for traffic dispersion within acceptable risk level and provides the Dual-superposition method to solute the model, as there are several disadvantages in the current traffic assignment model. Because the current traffic assignemtnt model is merely applicable in urban road network under the normal operating conditions with management objectives of total travel time or overall running cost of the network to the minimum, without consideration of risk control in operation. The presented traffic assignment model for expressway network is aimed to minimize the traffic dispersion time within acceptable risk level, which can not only be used to distribute the traffic flow in the best way under determental conditions, but also balance the risk control demand in road network operation and the need for maximization of traffic efficiency. In chapter seven, technologies for comprehensive optimization of the traffic organization and management measures presented in chapter two are invistiagted. Based on reseatch result of the paper and relivant literature, decision criterions for the measures are presented. According to their different features in operation, this chapter also establishes a management measures database for safe operation of long-span bridges, long tunnels (group), pivot interchange and primary expressway sections. Considering the reality of large affected area of expressway network due to disastrous incidents, this chapter proposes a multi-channel information spreeding network to guide the traffic flow by aggregating VMS, temporary warning signals, roadside broadcast, traffic broadcasting station, mobile phone messaging, internet and voice calls, etc. And their strategies and approaches for guidance are also explored. In the end of the paper, the above theoretical researches were applied in the expressway network consisting of G4 in Henan province as a case study. Three levels of topological road networks were set up, which corresponded to the macro, medium and micro grades of traffic organization and management. A logical circuit was designed for emergency management of disastrous incidents, which can be used for the development of expressway management systems. Key Words: expressway network, traffic organization and management, detrimental incidents, road traffic system, reliability, traffic assignment, Bayesian network, system engineering. |
博士论文