摘要 “以人为本、安全至上”是我国公路建设新时期的新理念和指导思想。目前，我国公路事业发展迅速，但也存在较为突出的交通安全问题。在公路设计阶段消除各种可能的安全隐患，制定和采取相应安全的公路设计策略尤为重要。车速是公路几何设计的控制技术指标，基于运行车速理念的公路线形设计理论与方法是解决公路安全设计问题的核心技术，也是公路安全设计的发展趋势。因此，有必要深入开展我国运行车速理论及其应用研究。 本文以我国不同类型高速公路及运行车辆为研究对象，从道路交通系统主客观安全性的角度出发，以运行车速为中介指标，将车速、交通安全、道路线形有机结合为一个整体，对基于运行车速的高速公路线形安全性设计与评价中的关键技术和理论，即高速公路运行车速预测模型及高速公路线形设计一致性评价模型及评价方法进行了深入研究。 论文首先提出运行车速及其特征指标的概念，通过对高速公路大量断面车速的数据观测和分析，针对断面车速分布特征进行了研究，采用分布假设检验方法确定了车速特征分布形式，运用统计学原理，根据车速频率分布及累积频率分布函数，提出运行车速特征指标及其量化方法。 在高速公路线形研究方面，分析了反映公路线形空间几何特征的平、纵、横线形技术指标对车速及公路安全性的影响机理，提出表征公路线形客观安全性的公路线形综合指标的概念，并对各单项线形指标与综合指标的一致性关系进行了研究；采用系统建模方法，分别构建平、纵、横线形综合指标函数，对线形描述函数中各参数进行了标定；基于空间几何学原理及公路线形设计特点，以平、纵线形综合指标为主，横断面线形指标作为修正的方式，并考虑桥梁、隧道等结构物的影响，建立包括曲率、曲率变化率、曲线转角、纵坡度、车道宽度等指标的三维公路线形综合指标描述模型，同时对线形综合指标的敏感性进行分析。 针对高速公路典型代表车辆——小客车和大型载重车的运行特点，在不同线形条件下车速变化规律以及公路几何线形空间综合指标与运行车速的相关性研究基础上，注重前后线形对运行车速的影响，考虑车辆运行车速的连续性变化及驾驶员视觉需求，确定车辆行驶中前方 100m 至 250m 有效注视范围为前方线形对车速的影响范围；根据不同类型车辆的加减速性能，确定后方 200m 加减速长度范围为后方线形对车速的影响范围；通过对前、后线形影响范围内公路线形综合指标的累积效果与运行车速的相关性分析，分别构建适用于我国 4~8车道高速公路Ⅰ类指标、Ⅱ类指标 A 型车和 D 型车的运行车速预测模型并进行了参数标定；采用统计检验原理，对预测模型进行了有效性检验。 论文以道路安全设计与线形设计一致性的理论为基础，根据线形设计一致性研究的特点，确定路段划分方法；针对行车中车速的协调性和连续性需求，提出车速标准差、车速变异系数、客货差极差比、断面车速差、车速降低系数、路段车速离散度等指标；以运行车速特征指标及事故率分别作为道路线形设计一致性评价与安全性研究量化指标，通过分析两者之间的相关性，建立基于多项运行车速特征指标的高速公路线形设计一致性综合评价模型；根据我国的实际情况，确定了我国高速公路安全性服务水平，提出线形设计一致性评价标准和评价方法。 最后，依托已建太旧高速公路和拟建鹤大高速公路，将高速公路运行车速预测模型及其在线形设计一致性评价方面的研究成果应用于工程实践。 关键词：高速公路；主客观安全性；线形综合指标；曲率；运行车速；运营安全；预测模型；一致性评价模型；评价标准。 |
ABSTRACT Human-oriented and safety supremacy are the new guiding ideology during highway construction period in China. At present, the highways develop rapidly, but the traffic safety problems are still outstanding. It is very important to eliminate hidden dangers and take safety road design strategy. Speed is the key parameters of road geometry design. The alignment design and evaluation based on operating speed is an effective way to solve safety design problems and the development trend. Therefore, it is necessary to study deeply on operating speed theory and application. Taken the operating speed as the mediated index, the speed, traffic safety and alignment were integrated on the basis of the subjective and objective safety in road traffic system. Then, the operating prediction models and alignment design consistency evaluation models which are the key technology and theory in alignment safety design and evaluation were studied. Firstly, the speed distribution character was studied through observations and data analysis. The speed distribution form was determined by distribution hypothesis tests. According to the statistical theory and the probability distribution cumulative function, the calculated method of speed characteristic index was put forward. In the alignment research, the influence of the space geometric characteristic index of the horizontal, vertical, cross-sectional alignment index on speed and safety were analyzed. Then, the geometric alignment comprehensive index characterizing the alignment objective safety was put forward. The relationships between the single index and the comprehensive index were studied. Correspondingly, the horizontal, vertical, cross-sectional alignment comprehensive index functions were set and the parameters were calibrated. Based on the space geometric theory and the alignment design characteristics, the three-dimensional road alignment comprehensive index description models including curvature, curvature variation, the angle of curve, grade and lane width were established by using the mode of horizontal, vertical index as primary and the cross-sectional index as correction. At the same time, the influence of the bridge and the tunnel were also considered. Then the sensitivity of the alignment comprehensive index was analyzed. According to the operation features of cars and trucks, the speed variation rules and the relation between the road geometrical space index and operating speed were analyzed. The forward 100~250m of fixation point was seemed as influence range of forward alignment considering the demand of the continuous variation of speed and the visual sense of drivers’. The rear 200m was taken as the rear influence range according to the acceleration and deceleration performance. through the analysis of the cumulative value of alignment comprehensive index and operating speed, the operating speed model of two kinds of index of Ⅰand Ⅰof cars and trucks suitable for four-lane to eight-lane expressway was established respectively and the parameters were calibrated. The validation of the prediction models were tested through statistical validation theory. Then, based on the road safety design and alignment design consistency theory, the division method of the section was determined. The standard deviation of speed, speed variation coefficient, range ratio of speed difference between cars and trucks, speed difference, speed reduction coefficient and speed dispersion were put forward based on the speed coordination and continuity demand. Taken the characteristic index of operating speed and accident ratio as the alignment design consistency evaluation and safety quantization index, the alignment design consistency comprehensive evaluation models were established through the relation analysis of the characteristic index. According to the actual situation, the safety service level was determined and then the alignment design evaluation standards and methods were put forward. Finally, the research results of operating speed prediction models of expressway and alignment design consistency evaluation were used in the Tai jiu and He da expressways. Key Words: expressway, subjective and objective safety, alignment comprehensive index, curvature, operating speed, operation safety, prediction model, consistency evaluation model, evaluation standard. |
博士论文