静态公路运营安全管理系统

核心技术研究

Study  on Core Technologies of Static Highway

Operation  Safety Management System

研究生：王  琰

指导教师：郭忠印教授

二○○八年三月

摘要

随着我国公路建设的迅速发展，公路密度不断提高，公路交通网络逐步形成，但同时已建成通车的公路在运营中也出现了较为严重的安全问题。管理手段滞后，管理体制不完善，管理水平低是造成这一现象的重要原因。因此，迫切需要采用先进的信息、安全与管理技术，建立一个公路运营安全管理系统，以确保公路的运营安全。

本文依托公路安全管理技术指南研究课题和沪蓉西高速公路建设工程，以区域公路网为研究对象，从静态管理的角度出发，对公路运营安全管理系统进行了需求分析，构建了静态公路运营安全管理系统的框架，并对系统的核心技术，即公路运营阶段的静态安全管理技术进行了深入的理论分析和建模。

论文首先对静态公路运营安全管理的概念进行了阐述，明确了其内涵，根据管理的需求提出了短期、中期和长期三个分析周期。然后从用户需求和功能需求两方面深入分析了系统的需求，由此构建了静态公路运营安全管理系统的层次结构和功能结构，提出了系统的业务流程。

构建了静态公路运营安全管理系统的框架之后，论文对系统的核心技术展开了深入研究，包括系统信息的采集与处理技术、不同分析周期的公路运营安全状态的评价技术、预测技术以及项目级和网级公路运营安全管理决策技术。

在系统的信息采集与处理技术研究中，论文对系统的信息需求及信息来源作了简要分析, 重点研究了系统的信息处理技术。针对静态信息的处理，研究了服务于运营安全管理的公路网划分方法及不同层次路段的静态特征表述方法。针对动态信息，分别研究了离散性动态信息和连续性动态信息的处理方法，以及路段动态特征的表述方法。

在公路运营安全状态评价技术研究中，通过分析公路运营安全性的内在本质与外在表现，提出并阐述了公路运营安全状态的概念及内涵。根据静态公路运营安全管理的决策需求，考虑事前评价和事后评价两方面，建立了综合的公路运营安全状态评价指标体系，并针对不同类型的路段运营安全特征，对各项评价指标进行了分析和量化。针对事故指标、交通流运行安全性指标和道路交通设施安全性指标，分别建立了评价模型。基于评价结果提出了两种公路运营安全状态的描述方法，一是公路运营安全状态的三维向量描述及雷达图显示，并根据状态向量和雷达图特征研究了公路运营安全状态的分类与判别标准。二是单一的公路运营安全状态综合评价指标描述方法，分别研究了路段、单条公路、各等级公路子网以及区域公路网的运营安全状态综合评价指标计算方法。最后说明了静态公路运营安全管理系统中路段、单条公路、各等级公路子网以及区域公路网的运营安全状态表述方法。

在公路运营安全状态的预测技术研究中，针对中短期项目级运营安全管理和中长期网级运营安全管理的决策信息需求，分别研究了确定型和概率型预测模型。对确定型预测模型作了简要介绍和分析，在时间序列分析预测的基础上，提出了针对改善对策的实施效果对预测模型进行修正的方法。运用马尔柯夫理论深入研究了概率型预测模型，鉴于数据的局限，采用经验分析法建立了状态转移概率矩阵。

在公路运营安全状态评价和预测技术研究的基础上，论文对静态公路运营安全管理的决策技术进行了研究。基于公路运营安全状态的评价和预测结果，分别提出了项目级和网级公路运营安全管理的标准。运用最优化方法和马尔柯夫决策过程理论建立了项目级和网级公路运营安全管理决策模型。

最后，依托沪蓉西高速公路，将静态公路运营安全管理系统研究成果应用于工程实践，并对进一步工作的方向进行了简要的讨论。

关键词：公路，运营安全，静态管理，管理系统，安全评价，预测技术，决策技术

ABSTRACT

During the rapid development of highway construction  in China, the highway density is enhanced continuously and highway network is  established gradually. Unfortunately the serious problems about traffic  safety occurred in the operation of highway put into use mainly because of  degraded management measure, imperfect management system and low management  level. Therefore it is urgent to establish an operation safety management  system based on advanced information, safety and management technology for  enhancing highway operation safety.

The paper, which studies the core technology of static  highway operation safety management system, originates from the projects of  guideline for highway safety management technology and Hu-rongxi freeway  operation safety management countermeasures. From the angle of static  management, the frame of static highway operation safety management system  was established and the core technology of the system was studied deeply,  including the information collection and processing technology, the highway  operation safety evaluation and prediction technology in the different  period, and decision-making technology for the project-level and the  network-level highway operation safety management.

On the research of information collection and  processing technology, the information requirement and information resources  was analyzed briefly and the information processing technology was studied  deeply. According to highway grade, construction character and alignment,  highway network was divided into different type of segments and the static  character of each type of segment was expressed with the static information.  As for the dynamic information, the discrete information and the continuous  information were processed in different ways and the expression method for  the dynamic character of segments was studied.  

Based on the analysis of the inner nature and the  outer expression of the highway operation safety, the highway operation  safety status was defined. According to the request of static highway  operation safety management, considering both pre-accident and post-accident  evaluation, the highway operation safety evaluation index system and the  corresponding evaluation models have been established by analyzing the  intrinsic relation among accident data, traffic flow characteristics, highway  facility characteristics and highway operation safety conditions. What’s  more, the operation safety status identification method has been put forward  based on quantitative safety evaluation.

According to the need of decision-making in the  project-level and network-level highway operation safety management, the  certain prediction model and the probability prediction model were studied.  The time-sequence prediction model was chosen for making certain prediction,  and the prediction result was revised due to the implementation of  countermeasures. The probability prediction model was studied by the  application of Markov theory. As the limitation of the data collection, the  status transfer probability matrix was determined by experience analysis.

On the basis of the highway operation safety evaluation  and prediction, the decision-making technology of static highway operation  safety management was studied. The criteria for project-level and  network-level management was provided based on the quantitative evaluation  and prediction result. The corresponding decision-making models for  project-level and network-level management were established by adopting  optimization method and markov decision process.

Finally, the static highway operation safety  management system is applied on Hu-rongxi freeway for practice. And the  following work is discussed briefly.

Key Words: highway,  operation safety, static management, management system, safety evaluation,  prediction technology, decision-making