摘要 在“五纵七横”国道主干线和国家高速公路网系统规划下，我国公路运输网由疏到密，逐步形成和完善。但因灾害性天气、不良交通状况和交通事件等引发公路交通拥挤、交通中断和交通延误以及伤亡惨重的交通事故也随着路网里程的增多而增加。造成这种情形的很大一部分原因在于管理水平没有跟上路网建设的发展水平。因此，有必要适时、超前地研究路网运营安全管理问题。 论文以通道路网为研究对象，以路网运营安全为基本目标，依托济青南线相关路网，在各类灾变条件下（灾害性天气事件、不良交通状态事件、交通事件），研究事件影响范围内路网运营安全管理及应急处置方法，对部分关键技术进行深入理论研究，并将结果应用于青岛～新疆红旗拉甫公路青岛至莱芜段（以下简称济青南线）工程实践。 高速公路通道运营安全管理路网构建方面，在分析影响道路运营安全的三类灾变事件基础上，提出高速公路通道管理路网确定的基本原则，并提出完整的路网构建流程和管理单元划分方法。 在高速公路管理单元属性分析方面，全面分析了影响道路运营安全以及影响运营管理决策的各类静态属性和动态属性，建立了静态属性矩阵和动态属性矩阵。 在灾变条件下通道路网运营安全管理及应急处置研究方面，主要包括以下几个方面的内容： 首先，提出对策类型和决策依据（灾变事件类型、灾变事件等级、交通流状况、运营安全性、用户行程时间）； 然后，重点分析表征管理单元运营安全性的实时安全可靠度确定方法，和作为路阻函数的管理单元行程时间确定方法。实时安全可靠度确定方法根据交通流状态不同而不同，自由流下采用模糊综合评判的方法，主要考虑道路设施因素、交通工程及沿线设施因素和环境因素；非自由流下实时安全可靠度包括静态安全可靠度和动态安全可靠度，静态安全可靠度仍采用模糊综合评判方法，动态安全可靠度以单车行车风险为基础，采用可靠性图能分析方法。行程时间的计算方法分为未发生交通事件和发生交通事件两种情形； 其次，对各类灾变事件的影响范围确定方法进行了探讨。灾变事件的影响范围分为两类：主线高速公路事发单元：出现灾害性天气、不良交通状况、交通事件等灾变事件的主线高速公路管理单元；事发点上游单元：上游事件影响范围。 再次，针对高速公路上各类灾变事件的不同影响范围，针对性的采取实时安全管理对策，并对各类管理对策研究决策模型，即灾变条件下通道路网运营安全管理及应急处置决策模型研究。对于第一类影响范围，根据灾变事件类型、事件等级和实时交通流状况，提出相应的车速控制、车道控制、限流管理等对策，以防止交通事件的发生或再发生。对于第二类影响范围，以实时安全可靠度为基本约束条件，行程时间为路阻函数，研究基于运营安全的通道路网交通诱导决策模型。 最后，设计简单路网，举例说明决策流程。 工程应用方面，结合济青南线依托工程，以济青南线为主线高速公路，将灾变条件下通道路网运营安全管理及应急处置研究成果应用于工程实践。 关键词：灾变条件，高速公路通道路网，属性矩阵，运营安全，安全可靠度，行程时间，对策，决策，交通诱导，k条可绕行路径 ABSTRACT With the systemic plan and layout of “5 Vertical and 7 Horizontal” main-line highway and national Freeway Network, highway transportation network of China is steadily improved and perfected. Unfortunately, highway traffic jam and traffic interruption and traffic delay, which caused by disaster weather, bad traffic status and traffic events, are becoming more and more serious. These highway safety problems mainly lie in the disparity between low-level management measure and rapid highway network construction. Therefore it is urgent to study on timely and advance highway network operation safety management system. Relied on the freeway corridor based on Ji-Qing Nan Xian, regarded freeway corridor operation safety as basic object, operation safety management and emergency disposal against disastrous conditions (disaster weather, bad traffic status, traffic events) within influenced network has been discussed. Much deep research has been taken out on some key technologies, and the results have been applied to Qingdao-Laiwu freeway（Ji-Qing Nan Xian）. At establishment of freeway management corridor, basic principle of network determination and complete process of network establishment and management unit division has been put forward. At analysis of freeway management unit property, static and dynamic properties, which influencing highway operation safety or decision-making, have been comprehensively analyzed，static and dynamic matrixes have been established. At research on operation safety management and emergency disposal against disastrous conditions of freeway corridor, the main content is as follows: Firstly, the kinds of countermeasure and foundation of decision-making (disaster event type, disaster event severity, traffic condition, operation safety, travel time) have been put forward; Secondly, determination method of unit real-time safety reliability (which indicating unit safety) and unit travel time (as impedance functions) have been discussed. Determination method of unit real-time safety reliability varies at different traffic condition. For free flow, fuzzy comprehensive judgment has been applied, and highway facility, traffic and circumstance factors have been taken into consideration. For non-free flow, unit real-time safety reliability consists of static safety reliability and dynamic safety reliability. Fuzzy comprehensive judgment has been applied to determine static safety reliability. Based on single vehicle driving risk, reliability graph analysis has been applied to determine dynamic safety reliability. Travel time determination method is divided into two situations: unit without traffic event and unit with traffic event; Thirdly, determination method of disaster event influencing scope has been studied. Disaster event influencing scope is divided into two kinds: unit with disaster event within the main freeway and upstream unit which is influenced by the spread traffic flow. Then, targeted real-time countermeasure has been put forward against different kinds of disastrous events to different influencing scope, and different decision-making model has been discussed. To the unit with disaster event, in order to prevent traffic event occurrence or reoccurrence, countermeasure determination method has been put forward according to event type, severity and traffic condition. To another kind of scope, taking real-time safety reliability as basic constraint condition, taking travel time as impedance function, dynamic route guidance decision-making model of corridor has been researched on. Finally, simple network has been designed to illustrate decision-making process. At project application, results of operation safety management and emergency disposal against disastrous conditions of freeway corridor have been used in the corridor of Ji-Qing Nan Xian(the main freeway). Key Words: disastrous conditions, freeway corridor, property matrix, operation safety, safety reliability, travel time, countermeasure, decision-making, traffic Guidance, k-diversion paths. |
博士论文