摘要 道路交通安全问题是一个世界性难题，也是一个将长期与人类共存、并将对人类社会可持续发展产生深远影响的社会问题。作为道路交通运输的重要组成部分，高速公路的建设、运营在我国仅有十多年的历史，但在其运营安全性上却表现出了与国外发达国家完全不同的特征，事故率和伤亡率等明显偏高。如何评价高速公路的运营安全性，并有针对性地提出高速公路运营安全改进对策，提高高速公路运营安全水平，是本文研究的主要内容。 高速公路运营安全性评价是运营安全管理的基础，本文用高速公路安全服务水平来表示。以山西省太旧高速公路、运三高速公路和原太高速公路为依托，从经济、事故和管理三方面建立了高速公路运营安全性评价模型和标准。在安全服务水平经济指标评价中，提出了以单位运输量下当量事故经济损失增长率与高速公路沿线区域 GDP 增长率之比表示的高速公路运营安全性服务水平，并以太旧高速公路 2001～2003 年的高速公路运营资料和沿线太原、阳泉的 GDP 数据，建立了高速公路运营安全性评价经济指标标准。 在安全服务水平事故指标评价中，以当量事故率为评价指标，建立了当量事故计算模型。在此基础上，结合太旧高速公路的实际运营情况，建立当量事故率预测模型，并通过敏感性分析，建立了高速公路安全服务水平当量事故评价标准。 在安全服务水平管理指标评价中，从安全管理的机构组织及人员配置、安全保障技术、日常安全管理、效果评价等几方面建立了高速公路运营安全管理检查表，根据检查表的分值高低来评价高速公路安全服务水平的高低。 高速公路安全评价的另外一个重要方面是对实时的交通状态和道路设施状态的安全性进行评价。高速公路运营安全影响因素包括了人—车—路—环境—管理等多方面。以高速公路运营中可控的道路状况和交通状况为目标，分析了交通条件和道路条件对高速公路运营安全的影响。在实时的交通流状况安全性评价中，提出了基于车速和车速离散性的高速公路运营安全性评价指标—高速公路行车危险性指数，并根据样本高速公路的实际运营状况建立了相应的评价标准。 在道路设施状态的安全性评价中，根据高速公路的实际情况，提出了基于车速和加速度的高速公路线形安全性评价模型和评价标准，并将路面管理系统中的路面抗滑能力标准和行车质量标准引入到安全评价中来。 高速公路运营安全性的提高需要通过高速公路运营安全管理来实现。安全管理分宏观安全管理和微观安全管理。宏观安全管理以整个道路交通安全复杂系统为管理对象，从工程、法规、教育、紧急救援、人人参与的角度出发，责任共担，建立并形成全社会的道路交通安全文化。 微观的高速公路安全管理通过建立系统化的高速公路运营安全管理系统来实现，强调在高速公路整个寿命周期中，所有对提高高速公路运营安全水平的措施都能够得到正确的认识、评价和应用。本文建立的高速公路运营阶段安全管理系统由三大部分组成，⑴高速公路运营安全性评价与改进，包括资料收集、数据分析、安全评价、对策研究、安全规划、优化实施、效果评价等；⑵高速公路运营安全日常管理，包括高速公路日常养护管理、交通监控与管理、高速公路交通事件紧急救援系统、高速公路气象信息系统等；⑶系统自评价。 高速公路运营安全服务水平的提高可以通过安全评价、改进以及日常运营安全管理来实现。工程对策主要从道路设施、交通工程设施两个方面安全保障进行。文中重点对由平竖曲线组合不当造成的路表积水而引起的滑水事故进行了研究，提出了曲线外侧车道在进入平曲线之前提前变换路拱模式的安全改进方法。此外还通过实例分析了路肩 Rumble strips 对高速公路行车安全的保障作用。在工程对策的选择上，提出了基于风险决策的安全改进工程对策效用决策方法。 高速公路日常安全管理的重点是交通管理。本文根据交通流参数和行车风险在时空分布上既有规律性又有动态特性的特征，因此将高速公路交通管理分为有静态管理和动态管理两类。静态管理以运营安全性与运行车速的关系为核心进行车速控制，建立了以平均车速为基准，以 V80和 V10为车速控制上限和下限的车速控制方法。 动态交通管理分为自由流状态下的交通管理和非自由流状态下的交通管理。在自由流状态下，研究了基于道路状况和环境等条件高速公路最高运行车速控制方法。 非自由流状态下，提出了基于行车安全和运输效率的高速公路运行车速控制方法-安全效益损失方法，并对车道管理进行了研究。根据高速公路实际运营安全状况，研究了载重货车对高速公路运营安全的影响，从车速控制、车道使用限制等方面研究了相应的对策。 在高速公路交通控制系统实施上，建立了高速公路短期交通参数预测方法和高速公路行车危险性最优控制模型，并应用交通仿真软件对不同交通控制方法及其组合的效果进行了仿真试验，效果理想。 最后，对高速公路运营安全性评价及对策研究进一步工作的方向做了简要的分析说明。 关键词：高速公路，运营，安全性评价，车速限制、行车风险、安全管理系统、安全改进，对策，交通控制 ABSTRACT Traffic safety problem is a worldwide puzzle which will coexist with human being for long and have an extensive influence on sustainable development of our society. As an essential portion of transportation system, the construction and operation of freeway have a history no more than ten years and character quite differently in operation safety with developed countries, higher accident and fatality rate. This thesis mainly studies on how to appraise operation safety of freeway and advance corresponding measurement to improve freeway safety. The operation safety assessment, which can be expressed by freeway operation safety service level（FOSSL）, is the basis of freeway operation safety management. In this research, the freeway operation safety assessment and standards are modeled on the performances of Taijue Freeway, Yunsan Freeway and Yuantai Freeway. The FOSSL can be expressed by economic index, equal accident index and management index. In the evaluation of economic index, the freeway operation safety service level is defined as the ration of the increase rate of economic loss per equal accident, and increasing rate of GDP along the freeway. The economic standard is modeled on the Taijiu freeway management data from 2001 to 2003 and the GDP data of the Taiyuan and Yangquan areas along the freeway. In the accident index evaluation of safety service level, the equal accident calculation model is using the equal accident rate as the evaluation index. On this base the equal accident forecasting model is made on the actual management of the Taijiu Freeway. Furthermore, the equal accident evaluation standard is made by the sensitive analysis. In the management index evaluation, the inspection table of safety operation is established on several facets such as organization and staff collocation, safety protection technique, daily safety management, effectiveness assessment and so on. And then the score of inspection table is used to evaluate the freeway safety service level. Another important aspect of freeway safety evaluation is the safety evaluation on the on-time traffic performance and the facility condition. The freeway traffic is an important part of road system. The safety effecting factors of freeway operation include human, vehicles, road and environment and management etc. The controllable road and traffic conditions are analyzed to get the impact on the freeway operation safety. As for the safety assessment of the on-time traffic, the driving risk index is used to express the speed and speed diversion, and then the according evaluation standard is made on the actual operation of the sample freeway. The safety evaluation of road facility presents the safety evaluation model and standard of the freeway alignment based on the speed and the acceleration, and takes into account the anti-skid ability of the pavement-surface and the driving performance standard. The improvement of freeway operation safety is guaranteed with daily operation management, which includes macroscopic safety management and microscopic safety management, the former focus on the foundation of traffic safety “culture”. The traffic safety culture is a combination of engineering, legislation, education, emergency rescue, and personal responsibility, etc. The latter can be actualized by the establishment of freeway operation safety management system, which emphasize on that all the measurement affecting freeway safety should be realized, assessable, and applied during the whole life of project. The system has three principle parts: (1) operation safety assessment and improvement, such as information collection, data analysis, safety assessment, countermeasure, traffic safety planning, optimization, cost-benefit analysis, etc. (2) freeway daily operation management, including daily maintenance, traffic surveillance and management, emergency rescue system, weather information system, etc. (3) system self-assessment. The improvement of freeway operation safety could be achieved by assessment and countermeasure of operation safety and also strengthening daily operation safety management. The engineering countermeasure mainly study on traffic facilities and road facilities. The research focus on the float accident caused by the gathering water on the road surface which is because the improper combination of horizontal and vertical curves, and then suggests to change the road arch model before the outside driveway entering the curve. In addition, the research analyse the protection of the rumble strips on the shoulders to the safety driving. On the selection of the engineering countermeasures, the research presents the effect decision method based on the risk decision. Traffic management is the most important part of daily operation safety management. As traffic parameters interrelate with operation risk, characteristic of orderliness and dynamic, so freeway traffic management contain two parts: static management and dynamic management. The relation between operation safety and operation speed is the core of static management, and speed control is the effective means of static management. Average speed is the key of speed control method, V85 and V10 acting as the upper speed limit and minimum speed limit. Dynamic traffic management has two categories: traffic management on uninterrupted flow condition and traffic management on interrupted flow condition. The former deals with the traffic control method on the highest operation speed in terms of road conditions and environment. The latter investigates the traffic control method based on speed control and lane management. As an example of actual operation safety condition, this thesis analyzes the effect of heavy truck on freeway operation safety and advances the countermeasures. In the engineering countermeasures, the according measures and methods are advanced such as increasing the number of road lanes, controlling the capacity and the application of traffic facility. And then the research presents the forecasting method of driving risk and traffic parameters and the priory controlling model of riding risk. In the area of freeway traffic control system, the paper establishes the forecast method on short-term traffic parameter and optimization control model on freeway operation risks, traffic simulation experiments are adopted to evaluate the effectiveness and benefits of various traffic control methods and their combinations. At last, the further research aspects on freeway safety assessment and countermeasure have been briefly illustrated Key Words: freeway, operation, safety assessment, speed limit, operation risk, safety management system, amelioration, safety countermeasure, traffic control. |
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