高速公路运行车速与道路安全性关系研究

Study  on the Relationship between Expressway Running Speed and Road Safety

研究生：孔令旗

指导教师：郭忠印教授

二〇〇四年三月

摘要

影响道路安全的因素是复杂的，它是由人、车、路等组成的一个完整的事故因链。对于任何一起事故都很难将其归结于某一种单一的因素，但运行车速是人、车、路等多方面综合作用的结果，通过对其研究可以有效地评价道路安全状况。

本论文研究内容主要分为两部分。第一部分通过实测运行车速等手段，对高速公路几何线形与运行车速的关系进行了较深入的研究，提出了基于人工神经网络的高速公路运行车速预测模型，并在预测模型的基础上提出了运行车速预测流程；第二部分通过对高速公路运行车速与道路安全性关系的研究，提出了运行车速与道路安全性评价模型。在研究分析中发现，路段事故率与车辆的运行车速特别是相邻路段的运行速度差值具有一定相关性，在运行车速高、相邻路段运行车速差值大的路段往往是事故多发位置。

通过上述模型的建立，最终提出了对现有及在建高速公路项目的安全性评价及改造流程，使高速公路安全性评价及改造工作条理化、系统化。

关键词：运行车速，道路安全，人工神经网络，事故多发位置

ABSTRACT

Road safety is a  complicated issue．As the factor to  accident is a systematic chain combined with human，vehicles  and roads，any fault in this system Can  result to accident．So it is not appropriate  to ascribe any accident to some factor．Operating speed is a  outcome of the road & traffic system and Can be used to appraise road  safety conditions effectively．

The research in this  thesis includes two parts．In the first part，according  to the observed operating speed，the relation between  mad alignment and operating speed of freeway is investigated and a predictive  model based on artificial neural network(ANN) is presented，then  a flow chart is advanced to predict operating speed using the model．In  the second part，the relation between operating  speed and road safety condition is analyzed and thus a model is presented to appraise  freeway safety condition with operating speed．The  study also finds that operating speed，especially difference  between adjacent road sections，has a significant  effect to road section accident rate．The sections that have  hiigh operating speed or hiigh speed difference tends to be accident black  spot．

Based on above model，safety  appraisal and ameliorative flows are presented aim at highways and built  projects SO as to systematically improve highway safety condition.

Key words：operating  speed，road safety，ANN，accident  black spot