摘要 基于GIS的道路交通安全管理系统是将GIS、道路信息、交通事故信息及各类处置模型相集成的一个有机的整体。该整体利用GIS的可视性、空间分析能力和交通事故信息及相关资料的连续性、系统性通过相关的处置模型一方面实现对系统所辖区域内各小区的道路安全水平的综合评价、预测，确定相应的区域道路网安全水平改善对策；另一方面实现对某一条道路或小区进行进一步的事故多发段点的鉴别，从而确定从道路方面对交通安全进行改善的方法和对策。 论文从分析我国的道路安全状况入手，阐述了建立交通安全地理信息系统的必要性和紧迫性，并按照信息系统建立的一般过程，对系统的功能和构成进行了详细地分析，在此基础上确定了系统各个主要组成部分和构建方法。论文重点对数据库部分、模型库和对策库进行了研讨，而对系统中交通事故信息一般统计分析部分未作叙述。 按照系统的结构特点，论文在第二章分析了系统所采用的各类数据库组成，尤其详细分析了属性数据库和空间数据库的组成，提出了属性数据库和空间数据库的构建方法和实现方法。 针对模型库中的各种模型，论文在第三章、第四章按照目前我国道路安全管理的现行体制，分析了道路安全评价的指标体系，提出了适用于系统所辖区各个子区间(网级)道路安全水平分析的层次-模糊综合评价模型，引入了道路安全指数RSI(Road Safety Index)及相应的计算方法：提出了适用于各个子区或子区内(项目级)的各条道路上的交通事故多发位置的鉴别模型-质量控制模型和鉴别指数-经验模型，引入了黑点指数BSI(Black Safety Index)及相应的计算方法，并通过实例验证了这两种模型的可行性和可靠性。 为了制定未来的区域道路安全水平改善计划，论文在第五章提出了适用于区域道路安全水平的预测模型，该模型根据各个单项指标的特点，分别采用了回归预测、时间序列预测和灰色系统等预测模型加以预测，然后以多个单项指标的预测结果为基础，采用层次一模糊模型计算道路安全指数RSI进行道路安全的综合评价。 为了反映改善后的经济效益，论文在第六章从社会损失的角度详细分析了由交通事故给社会所带来的各方面的损失构成，探讨了各损失的计算方法，进而确定了交通事故每个死亡人员、受伤人员的平均损失和每起交通事故所带来的平均经济损失的计算方法，在此基础上提出了道路安全改善效益的计算方法。 论文在第七章探讨了根据道路安全水平综合评价结果和道路交通事故多发段点鉴别结果网级系统和项目级系统所应采取的道路安全改善对策。为了使改善对策具有更大经济效益和社会效益，论文提出了以修正的RSI作为网级道路安全改善优先的排序指标；以修正累计黑点指数指标作为项目级优先排序指标。 关键词：道路交通安全，GIS管理信息系统，道路安全评价，事故多发段点，道路安全水平，预测道路安全改善，事故损失分析，优先排序 ABSTRACT GIS—Based Road traffic safety management system(RTSMGIS)is an organic entirety that integrates GIS，road information，traffic accident information and correlative transacting models．Making use of the visibility and gee．spatial analysis function of GIS and the continuity，systematization of traffic accident information and related data．with the aid of correlative treatment model，the system can make evaluation and prediction by synthesis of road safety level of each small jurisdictional area and obtain suggestions for improving the safety level of relevant regional road networks，on the other hand。the system can aid to decide methods&measures to improving traffic safety from the road engineering aspect by the way of identification of black spot on a road orin a small area。 The paper explains the necessity and urgency to build the RTSMGIS from road safety conditions at present in our country．According to the general procedure of building information system．the detailed analysis is made on the function and composition of RTSMGIS．After that, each main part of RTSMGIS and the method to construct them are defined．The paper’s key point is on database, correlative models and decision．making result of RTSMGIS．The routine statistic analysis of traffic accident information in RTSMGIS is not stated in this paper． In the chapter 2, this paper analyzes the structure of the databases in the RTSMGIS according to its character．Especially, the structure of attribute & spatial database is studied detailedly and the designing rule & method is provided． In the chapter 3 and chapter 4, this paper analyzes the road safety evaluation index system according to the present road safety management system in our country．The further research is carried out on the level-fuzzy synthetic evaluation model which fits road safety level evaluation of each small jurisdictional area in regional road networks(network level)and this paper introduces Road Safety Index as road safety evaluation index and the corresponding calculating method of RSI is provided. Meanwhile, quality control model and identify-index-experiential model, which fits to identify black spot on each roads of the sub-sections(project level)within small jurisdictional area，are studied and the Black Safety Index & correlative calculating method is introduced. Through the practical example, the feasibility & reliability of models is proved in the last of these chapters. In the chapter 5，for the aim to set down the road safety improving project in the future in egional road networks，this paper provides the pre-evaluation model which fits region road safety level estimation，the model adopts regression model，time sequence model and grey system model, etc to predict the various index according their character and based on these prediction results base，the model applies level-fuzzy model to calculate the RSI for the synthetic road safety evaluation． In the chapter 6，the economic loss in various aspects of society brought by the traffic accident & its calculating method are detailedly analyzed from point of society loss view．Furthermore，this paper provides the method how to calculate the average economic loss in the every traffic accident, every dead and injured man. The benefit calculating method from road safety improvement based on these studies is provided． In the chapter 7，this paper discusses the countermeasures for road safety improvement from point of network level system and project level system view according to synthetic road safety evaluation and black spot identification．In order to increase the economic & social benefit of countermeasures, modificatory RSI is treated as the sort index in network level roads safetyimprovement priority analysis, and modificatory accumulative BSI is treated as the sort index in project level roads safety improvement priority analysis． Key words：Road Traffic Safety，GIS，Management Information System，Road Safety Evaluation，Black Spot，Priority Compositor，Road Safety Improvement，Road Safety Level Predetermination，Accident Loss Analysis |
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